Here we go with the 4th and final part of the Western Conference standing predictions. In the final installment we’re going to take a look at the teams that will finish in the top 2 spots in the ultra competitive Western Conference. These two teams are arguably the most complete and deepest teams in the NBA. These two teams feature a former and reigning scoring champ, a former and reigning MVP, two Defensive Player of the Year candidates, a 6th Man of the Year candidate and a rookie head coach looking to make the same impact as the other coach featured today.
02. Oklahoma City Thunder 59-23 (Last season 45-37)
Wizards v/s Thunder 03/14/11 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
You know the Thunder aren’t staying out of the playoffs very long. After a disappointing season where they narrowly missed the playoffs (think back to the New Orleans game where Anthony Davis hit the game winning shot) the Thunder are healthy and have arguably the best roster they’ve had during their tenure so far in Oklahoma City. They finished last season 45-37, playing the majority of the season without Kevin Durant (they were 18-9 with him in the lineup) and the final 18 games without Serge Ibaka. Russell Westbrook did his best to keep his team in the race, playing the best basketball of his career putting up 28 points, dishing out 8.6 assists, and grabbing 7.3 rebounds a game. He also averaged 2.1 steals a game too. He led the league with 11 triple doubles, and was an MVP candidate. The Thunder also acquired Enes Kanter from the Utah Jazz who turned out to be the offensive center this team was missing. He would average 19-11 for Oklahoma City, including 5 offensive rebounds a game. He also shot 57% from the field. The Thunder were the top rebounding team in the league, grabbing 47.5 a game. Kanter grabbed 11, Ibaka grabbed 7.8, Steven Adams grabbed 7.5 and Westbrook grabbed 7.3. They grabbed 13 offensive rebounds a game which is good for best in the league. Their rebound differential of 4.8 is good for best in the league as well. And now they’re getting Kevin Durant back for a full season, so they should remain one of the highest scoring offenses and best rebounding teams in the league.
Russell Westbrook was an absolute beast last season for the Thunder and should benefit greatly from a returning Kevin Durant, as well as new head coach Billy Donovan. Scott Brooks relied on these two way too much, and that’s something Billy Donovan is going to correct. Billy Donovan will center this offense around these two, but the other 3 players on the court will be involved as well. Serge Ibaka is mainly known as a defensive player, but his offensive game is improving with each season. He’s adding the three pointer to his game, and is getting better at knocking down the shot. Last season he shot 38% on 3.2 attempts a game. He’s an excellent mid range shooter, and fantastic from 0-3 feet. But defensively is where he shines. He can block and alter the shot better than just about anyone in the league. Opponents shot 40.8% at the rim against him last season. He also blocked nearly 2.5 shots a game last season. I think it’s safe to say that the Thunder missed his defense late in the season. Serge Ibaka is the X Factor for this team. Not only will he prove to be a valuable offensive player, but his defense will shine as he looks to help mask the weakness of Enes Kanter.
But don’t expect Kanter to be as big a liability defensively as he was during his 26 game stint with the Thunder last season. They’ve brought in Monty Williams as an assistant coach, who is defensive minded. He should be able to help Kanter turn into a respectable defensive player, along with the other post players the Thunder have. Steven Adams is going to contribute nicely, as will Mitch McGary and Nick Collison. Mitch McGary only played 15 minutes a game, but made the most of them and averaged 6.3 a game. Translate that to per 36 minutes and he’s averaging 15 points, along with 12 rebounds. Collison is a hustle and energy guy, and provides a spark off the bench that not only gets the crowd going, but gets the team going. He’s a good presence to have on the court and in the locker room.
The shooting guard position will be something to watch this season as well. The Thunder have three very capable players at this position. Andre Roberson, Anthony Morrow and Dion Waiters. I ultimately think Morrow will get the starting position, with Roberson, who is great defensively, switching to the 3 mainly and backing up Kevin Durant. Dion Waiters will lead the bench. These three all bring something different to the court, and I think if Donovan manages the minutes well, he will get the best production he can from this position. They’ve also got nice backups at the point guard position. DJ Augustin is a very reliable back up point guard, and Cameron Payne will develop nicely under Donovan. Payne, in my humble opinion, will eventually earn the backup job. We may even see a two point guard backcourt with Payne running point and Westbrook at the 2 looking to score, which we know he can do very well.
The starting lineup is going to look like this: Russell Westbrook, Anthony Morrow, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter. They’ve got a deep bench with DJ Augustin, Cameron Payne, Dion Waiters, Andre Roberson, Kyle Singler, Mitch McGary, Nick Collison, and Steven Adams. One thing Scott Brooks did was rely way too much on Durant and Westbrook. That is something Billy Donovan will need to correct, and I think he will. This team has a lot of talent, and 59 wins and a deep playoff run is very likely. Billy Donovan is entering a Steve Kerr-esque situation, and should thrive in his first full season as an NBA coach.
01. Golden State Warriors 60-22 (Last season 67-15)
Wizards v/s Warriors 03/02/11 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I don’t think I need to say it again, but I will anyway. No, the Warriors are not 7 games worse than last season. Other teams just got healthy and improved their roster, making the top of the West much tougher. The Warriors are the defending NBA champions, defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers in a 6 game series. They brought back the same roster, with the exception of trading David Lee to the Celtics. The Warrior had an historic season, winning 67 games and bringing the Golden State Warriors their first title in 40 years. Stephen Curry won his first MVP of his career as the leader of the champs. He averaged nearly 24 points, 8 assists and just over 4 rebounds a game shooting 49% including 44% from three and 91% from the line. His fellow Splash Bro is also a pretty good player. For the Warriors, Thompson chipped in 22 points to go along with 3 rebounds and 3 assists, shooting 46% from the field, including 44% from three and 88% from the line. They were joined by Draymond Green who averaged 12, 8, and 4 on 44% shooting.
The Golden State Warriors feature one of the best starting lineups in the league of Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Green and Bogut. Their bench is led by Andre Iguodala (a 6th man of the Year candidate this season) and includes Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush, Jason Thompson, Leandro Barbosa, Festus Ezeli and Marreese Speights. Steve Kerr knows how to manage his minutes and get the best out of his players. (After all he played under Gregg Popovich, a pretty good NBA coach.) They like to play small ball, with Green playing center quite a bit, and it worked for Golden State last season. Andrew Bogut is a nice defensive presence, so he will still play a big role for this team. Marreese Speights was a bright spot for this team. He only played 16 minutes, but in those minutes he scored 10.4 points and grabbed 4.3 rebounds. Translating those numbers to per 36 minutes, and they jump to 23.6 points and 9.7 rebounds. He also shot 50% from the field. Steve Kerr would be wise to use him in a little bit of a bigger role next season.
The key to this team, of course is the backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who have emerged as the best backcourt in the league today. (Lawson and Harden could definitely give them a run for their money though) There’s no denying that they are both excellent shooters. Let’s first take a look at Stephen Curry’s numbers. From 0-3 feet he shot 69%. From 3-10 he shot 46%. From 10-16 he shot 52%, 16 to before the three point line he shot 39%, and he was a 44% three point shooter. So, he can hit from pretty much anywhere, and his quick release makes it almost impossible to stop. Klay Thompson has emerged as one of the best shooters in the league today. He shot 68% from 0-3, could use some work from 3-10 feet shooting only 35%. His mid range game needs some work too, shooting nearly 42%. But he is an excellent three point shooter and can light it up at any time. The Warriors have been blessed with this duo. If you double one, the other could be open for a three point shot. Or you can give it to Draymond Green down low and let him go to work. This team is deep and balanced, and should contend for the top spot, and the championship once again.
